Is there a threshold e ff ect in the party popularities with respect to the changes in unemployment ? ∗ Anna - Leena Asikainen

In 1987-2001 unemployment and inßation have the opposite inßuences on the popularities of Finnish and Swedish leftist and rightist parties. The popularities of the Finnish right-wing (left-wing) parties decrease (increase) when unemployment and inßation increase but in Sweden the opposite happens although the countries experience simultaneously an economic crisis. Fitting a threshold model in the popularity functions further widens the differences. Popularity of the Finnish left-wing parties increases when unemployment is high (>10.7%). The right-wing parties lose support when unemployment is between 12.2% and 15.1%, otherwise their popularities go to different directions with respect to the economy. For the Swedish parties no meaningful thresholds are found.